Analisis Peramalan Kebutuhan Energi Listrik untuk Kabupaten Bireuen Menggunakan Perangkat Lunak LEAP
Main Article Content
Keywords
Abstract
Increasing electrical energy consumption in a region due to economic development must be anticipated as early as possible in order to ensure that electricity is available sufficiently in affordable price. One method for the anticipation is forecasting electrical energy consumption. This paper aims to forecast electrical energy consumption using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) software for study case in Bireuen District. Based on historical data since 2012 in form of population development, number of customers, electrification ratio, energy intensity, and profile of electrical energy consumption, an analysis is carried out to forecast the future electrical energy demand in Bireuen District until 2026. The analysis predict that in 2026, the number of electricity customers will reach 183,016 customers with an average growth of 4.7% per year, and electricity consumption will reach 563.02 GWh with an average growth of 10.67% per year. In addition, the electrification ratio will continue to increase to 99.42% in 2026 while the energy elasticity will continue to decline to reach 0.61 in that year.
Keywords: electrical energy, electrical energy consumption, electrification ratio, energy elasticity, LEAP
Abstrak
Meningkatnya konsumsi energi listrik suatu daerah karena peningkatan taraf perekonomian harus diantisipasi sedini mungkin agar energi listrik tersedia dalam jumlah yang cukup dan harga yang terjangkau. Salah satu yang perlu dilakukan dalam mengantisipasi hal tersebut adalah peramalan kebutuhan energi listrik. Makalah ini bertujuan untuk meramal kebutuhan energi listrik menggunakan perangkat lunak Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) dengan mengambil kasus pada Kabupaten Bireuen. Berdasarkan data-data historis sejak tahun 2012 berupa pertumbuhan penduduk, jumlah pelanggan, rasio elektrifikasi, intensitas energi, dan profil konsumsi energi listrik, maka dilakukan analisis untuk memprakirakan kebutuhan energi listrik di Kabupaten Bireuen untuk masa mendatang sampai dengan tahun 2026. Hasil analisis data meramalkan bahwa pada tahun 2026, jumlah pelanggan listrik akan mencapai 183.016 pelanggan dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan adalah 4,7 % per tahun, dan konsumsi energi listrik akan mencapai 563,02 GWh dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan sebesar 10,67 % per tahun. Selain itu, diperoleh juga bahwa rasio elektrifikasi akan meningkat terus mencapai 99,42 % pada tahun 2026 sedangkan elastisitas energi akan menurun terus mencapai angka 0,61 pada tahun tersebut.
Kata Kunci: energi listrik, kebutuhan energi listrik, rasio elektrifikasi, elastisitas energi, LEAP.
References
[2] Chandra P. Putra, Maickel Tuegeh, Hans Tumaliang, and Lily S. Patras, "Analisa Pertumbuhan Beban Terhadap Ketersediaan Energi Listrik di Sistem Kelistrikan Sulawesi Selatan," Journal Teknik Elektro dan Komputer, vol. 3, no. 2, 2014.
[3] E.H. Tampubolon, H. Tumaliang, and M.S. Rumbayan, "Kajian Perencanaan Energi Listrik di Wilayah Kabupaten Sorong Menggunakan Perangkat Lunak LEAP," Jurnal Teknik Elektro dan Komputer, vol. 3, no. 2, 2014.
[4] BPS, Kabupaten Bireuen dalam Angka 2017. Bireuen: Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Kabupaten Bireuen, 2017.
[5] "Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 30 Tahun 2009 Tentang Ketenagalistrikan,".
[6] Daman Suswanto, Sistem Distribusi Tenaga Listrik.: Jurusan Teknik Elektro Fakultas Teknik Universitas Negeri Padang, 2009.
[7] Stockhlom Environment Institute, LEAP Training Exercises.: Boston Center, Tellus Institute, 2005.
[8] ADB, Achieving Universal Electricity Access in Indonesia. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2016.
[9] Addin Aditya, Erma Suryani, and Rully Agus Hendrawan, "Analysis of Electricity Demand to Increase the Electrification Ratio (Case Study: Madura Island)," in Proceedings of The 2nd International Seminar on Science and Technology, Surabaya, 2016.
[10] Paul J. Burke and Zsuzsanna Csereklyei, "Understanding the energy-GDP elasticity: A sectoral approach," CAMA Working Paper, no. 45, 2016.
[11] F. Gerard Adams and Peter Miovic, "On relative fuel efficiency and the output elasticity of energy consumption in Western Europe," Journal of Industrial Economics, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 41-56, 1968.
[12] Shimi S.L. and Reji B, "Elasticity of Energy Consumption in India," International Journal of Research in Electrical & Electronics Engineering, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 19-24, 2013.
Article Sidebar
Article Details
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
The authors declare that:
1. This paper has not been published in the same form elsewhere.
2. It will not be submitted anywhere else for publication prior to acceptance/rejection by this Journal.
3. A copyright permission is obtained for materials published elsewhere and which require this permission for reproduction.